Why the Research on Private Listings Keeps Disagreeing
Five studies, five definitions of "private." Why their numbers can't be pooled into one answer for sellers.
Analysis · Source-based interpretation of the research and policy shaping residential real estate.
Over the past year MLSs, brokerages, portals, academics and regulators have all published studies on what listing strategies do to price. Most aren't measuring the same thing. Each defines "private" differently, so read every result with its actual comparison, geography, period, sponsor and limitations. Reported associations are evidence about a study population, not forecasts for an individual seller.
Bright MLS / Drexel
Industry research · 2019–Q1 2023 · Mid-Atlantic / DC · 1,003,263 screened residential resales
What "private" meant: Screened off-MLS sales. A broad channel comparison that does not isolate office exclusives, DMEL or phased marketing.
Reported result: +17.5%: reported MLS price association relative to screened off-MLS sales.
What limits the inference: The report screens many related-party, corporate and distressed transactions. Remaining differences in condition, motivation and channel selection can still matter. Bright's participation is a disclosed industry interest; university affiliation is not journal peer review. Bright's 2025 office-exclusive regression found no statistically detectable price advantage in its selected sold cohort (N = 5,577); that is not proof of zero effect.
Darren K. Hayunga working paper
Academic · revised April 29, 2026 · Dallas–Fort Worth
What "private" meant: Zero-days-on-market pocket sales versus ordinary MLS sales.
Reported result: +1.7%: positive overall pocket-sale association. The post-CCP premium is statistically indistinguishable from zero.
What limits the inference: Zero days on market is a proxy, not a census of all private sales. The full manuscript was not retrieved for this review, so table-level specifications and subgroup estimates remain unverified. Stronger subgroup results do not establish a general luxury exception.
Compass internal analysis
Company research · released July 24, 2026 · 70,809 closed transactions listed Apr. 2025–Mar. 2026
What "private" meant: Private Exclusive and/or Coming Soon listings combined, versus direct-to-MLS Compass listings.
Reported result: +4.6%: company-reported estimate; reported 95% interval 4.2%–4.9%.
What limits the inference: The combined treatment does not isolate private exposure. The study excludes unsold withdrawals and expirations and has a commercial sponsor. Time measured after activation omits earlier phases. The original +2.9% came from Compass's 2024 analysis, a different cohort and method.
Zillow update
Portal research · May 14, 2026 · national · 6.2 million eligible sales, 2023–2025
What "private" meant: A classification that partly combines limited public exposure with same-agent or same-office representation.
Reported result: −1.3%: private-sale association using an AVM-normalized comparison.
What limits the inference: The portal has a commercial interest, and AVM and selection limitations remain. This is another distinct comparison, not the low end of a unified range.
ARELLO white paper
Regulator association · reported September 23, 2026 · MLSs with 5,000+ sold listings · 10 million+ transactions
What "private" meant: Private listings and Coming Soon listings measured separately, each against MLS listings.
Reported result: Private −0.87% to −1.26%; Coming Soon +1.16% to +1.38%, relative to AVM-expected price, 2025 and 2024.
What limits the inference: ARELLO describes these as associations, not causation. Private-listing volumes are estimated rather than directly observed. Added from press coverage; the primary white paper has not yet been reviewed.
No pooled range
These studies are not interchangeable estimates of one exposure effect. Their treatments, populations, periods and methods differ. Combining their percentages into a "typical seller" range would create false precision. The evidence also does not establish that the financial effect is always small or always zero.
For seller conversations
Begin with the seller's priorities, then document who can discover the home, the intended duration and the point for reconsidering the plan. Compare net proceeds, total time from first marketing, probability of sale, privacy and buyer access. Do not put an unsupported pooled percentage into a seller disclosure or present exclusivity as a proven luxury premium.
What comes next
The next useful test follows comparable listing episodes across phases, including unsold listings, full elapsed time and net proceeds.
